How many years of oil in Russia will last

0
1997

There are a total of 2,700 oil fields in Russia. Of these, 2,000 are small, and 719 contain 92% of all oil. The total in all fields is 28.9 billion tons of oil. Or 211 billion barrels of oil, as one ton of Russian Urals oil contains 7.3 barrels.

A barrel is translated from English as “barrel. That is, to say “the cost of 1 barrel of oil” is like saying “the cost of 1 barrel of oil.

If you fill 7 barrels with oil, that oil will weigh 1 ton. Different grades of oil are slightly different in weight – 1 ton of oil in 7-8 barrels. The Russian oil has 1000kg/7.3 = 137kg of oil in 1 barrel.

Russia now produces 11 million barrels per day. Considering that it has 211 billion barrels of underground reserves, we get:

211000/11 = 19181 days
or
19181/365 = 52.5 years

That is, if Russia produces oil at the same rate as now, there will be enough oil for 52.5 years.

But it should be understood that this is if you pump out ALL the oil. Oil is not always easy to produce. To pump out some oil, you have to spend more money than you get from selling it, which means that it is not profitable to produce it. The amount of profitable oil depends on the price of oil.

The cost of 1 barrel of oil consists of three items:
costs associated with production
+
transportation
+
taxes.

For existing wells, the cost per barrel is $15-20 depending on the well. If we are not talking about existing wells, but the development of new wells, the price can go up to $40 per barrel. About half of this price is tax.

The tax on oil, like other minerals, is not fixed, but floating. It depends on the income received from the sale of oil. And if the market price of oil falls, the tax also falls. And, accordingly, the cost of production falls.

Since there is less tax, there is less money going into the national budget. But the oil company does not incur significant losses, because the fact that it receives less income is partially compensated by lower taxes. This creates a certain safety cushion for the company. But it causes a big budget deficit for Russia, because a large part of its budget is formed by taxes on oil.

In any case, even if you remove the tax altogether, there are still costs of production and transportation. And the lower the price of oil on the market, the fewer wells it is profitable to pump oil from. If the price of oil is $20, then automatically all wells that spend more than $20 on production and transportation become unprofitable.

It turns out that oil reserves will end not in 52.5 years, but much earlier – as soon as easily extractable reserves are depleted.



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